Matchday 26 Preview: Ural stare at relegation jaws, Derby redemption

We have looked ahead to the matchday 26 fixtures in the Russian Premier Liga to bring you the key plot lines to look out for.

Ural vs Ufa: Relegation jaws opening out east

Ural Ekaterinburg hosting Ufa may not usually set many neutral pulses racing, but perhaps it should do on the occasion. The implications of failure for either side are growing ever larger and more ominous as the weeks creep closer to the end of the season, but even more so for Ural after picking up just two points since the spring; only Arsenal Tula have failed to pick up a win since the winter. Not only that, but their next two fixtures are against Moscow giants Spartak and Dynamo.

The remaining five games will now define the league campaign. A league-low 16 goals scored doesn’t bode well for their chances of overpowering Ufa, and although the last two fixtures are against sides still fighting to keep their heads above water, by then it might be too late if they blow this chance. They’ve never lost in four home league clashes against Ufa at least; if they break that record though, the next encounter may not be for a while.

Ufa scrapped and fought their way to a valuable 1-1 draw against CSKA Moscow last time out, and in having overtaken Ural in the table from being three points behind to one ahead coming into this weekend. The obvious focal point is of course RPL top goalscorer Gamid Agalarov, who has scored as many goals as the entire Ural side this season, and has scored three times in the last four RPL matches.

Ural have been in existence for almost a century, and play in a World Cup stadium; Ufa were only formed just over a decade ago. Both, however, have spent time in the not-so distant past in the second tier, and have no desire to return any time soon. All Ufa’s remaining matches come against the other five sides in the current bottom six; they will surely see an out-of-form ural as the best chance to steal a march on the pack.

Rostov vs Spartak Moscow: Valery Karpin to mastermind old side’s downfall?

One side that have miraculously dragged themselves out of trouble are Rostov following nine points out of the last three matches. Like Ufa, they have their talisman in Dmitry Poloz who has stormed into his most explosive scoring season with 12 goals already to his name, but they also have the most hectic record at both ends; with 83 goals scored and conceded in the 25 games they have played, no side has been involved in more goals this season.

Valery Karpin has the intriguing task of tying that all together into a plan to overcome the club, which celebrated its centenary last week, for whom he played, managed and directed with distinction for many years. The teams are dead level on points in the table to add a little extra immediacy to the fixture, but with the hot streak of form in Nikolay Komlichenko (three goals and one assist  in the last three games) and youngster Kirill Shchetinin (two goals and one assist in the last four) as well, he has the tools to engineer a mighty challenge for Spartak.

The Red-Whites also have the added burden of having played midweek in a pulsating Russian Cup quarter-final, which will be countered by the euphoric victory over CSKA. Suddenly a season that had seemed lost with a managerial change and a drift into mid-table obscurity has real purpose after Zenit St. Petersburg were knocked out of the Cup to leave the only top-flight rivals left in the competition Spartak’s historic rivals Dynamo.

Will Paolo Vanoli be able to channel the balance between Cup dreams and euphoria, and the additional strain of exhaustion? His side have won just once away from home in over half a year, losing on their last two visits to the south of Russia (3-0 vs Sochi, and 2-1 vs Krasnodar) and keeping only one clean sheet since edging past Akhmat Grozny in October. His opposite number, like the Italian, is a fiery, passionate attack-minded coach - this game has all the elements to produce an explosive encounter.

CSKA Moscow vs Dynamo Moscow: Derby redemption for wobbling Armymen?

How much difference a few weeks can make. Yusuf Yazici broke the remarkable record for scoring in the most consecutive games at the start of an RPL career after a scarcely believable eight goals in six straight matches to kick off his time in Moscow, which coincided with CSKA extending their winning streak to six games. At that point, after a 6-1 annihilation of Rubin Kazan just over a month ago, talk of a title challenge was far more than mere pipe dreams.

In what seems like the blink of an eye, they have gone three league games without a win - all against teams in the relegation playoff zone - in which they’ve conceded seven goals and dropped down 11 points off the pace behind Zenit. To top it off, they suffered the indignity of losing to one classic Moscow rival midweek in the Russian Cup in Spartak. Of course this doesn’t instantly make them a struggling side, but it has ramped up the scrutiny on them heading into another derby with barely time to draw breath.

Dynamo, on paper, should therefore be confident of an upset. They have not fallen away, remaining within reach of the RPL summit three points back from Zenit, and progressing to the Russian Cup semi-finals after a penalty shootout win over Baltika Kaliningrad. Three RPL clean sheets for a defence that welcomes back Guillermo Varela from injury, as well as five straight away league wins, bolsters their claims as favourites too.

However, scratch a little deeper below the surface, and perhaps they shouldn’t count their chickens just yet. Against Nizhny Novgorod and Krasnodar they had to rely on a late own goal and a penalty to settle narrow 1-0 wins. They have also failed to win any of their last four visits to Moscow neighbours in the RPL. The pressure of knowing the slightest slip-up is likely to see their hopes of challenging Zenit allo the way to the last matchday disappear will add to the already automatic pressure a derby brings.

Krasnodar vs Zenit St. Petersburg: Goal-fest guaranteed?

This fixture has almost become a staple of the RPL season run-in drama. Both teams have scored in all of the last eight meetings they’ve shared in the RPL, although Krasnodar have suffered at the agonising end of most of them. In fact, the last three times they’ve welcomed Zenit down south have come in the final seven fixtures of the respective seasons, and although Krasnodar have scored twice in all of them, they lost twice, drew once, and had to watch as Zenit went on to win the title.

The Bulls are not quite charging at full steam, at least not in the same identity, as they have been right now of course. A bright, short spell of form after the winter break has given way to a run of one win in the last four games, as the inexperienced squad left have begun to falter somewhat. One goal scored in the last three matches overall is an obvious factor.

By this stage of the matchday, with their only realistic remaining rivals Dynamo having already played an possibly closed the gap again, Zenit will know exactly what their task is, but may have the added pressure of again recouping ground taken in the case of Dynamo beating CSKA in the derby on Sunday. They have played after Dynamo’s fixture for the last three matchdays, so at least they’ll be used to the type of pressure it brings.

Fourteen unbeaten league games offers considerable respite to any pressure though. Four clean sheets in their last six away games removes considerable doubt from their previously uncertain form on the road. It is said winning is a habit - this is something that Sergey Semak’s men know all too well.

Photo: Christina Korovnikova / Dynamo Moscow